GamePlan Science
Probabilistic models of team performance — estimating team strength with quantified uncertainty, then predicting game outcomes and season results from first principles.
How GamePlan Science works
What is GamePlan Science?
GamePlan Science is a Bayesian analysis platform for NFL team strengths. We estimate offensive and defensive team abilities with full posterior uncertainty, then use those estimates to simulate games, seasons, and playoff paths.
Unlike traditional power rankings or Elo systems, the charts here show distributions — so you can ask questions like “How likely is it that the Chiefs offense is actually top-5?” rather than relying on a single point estimate. For model specifics, see the blog.
Data
Analyses are built on nflverse open NFL data from the 2000 season through the present — play-by-play, schedules, games, and related team context used throughout the site.
How to use this site
The bottom (or desktop) nav is the main map. Each tab is a different cut of the same underlying estimates and simulations:
Strengths
Seasonal team offense, defense, and overall strength. Use Spread for the full-league posterior ridgeline, Rankings for a sortable table, O/D for offense-vs-defense scatter with uncertainty blobs, and Trend for how each division’s teams have moved over seasons.
Schedule
The season slate with simulated score distributions for each game. Open a matchup to see win probabilities, margin and total histograms, and how the two teams’ strengths compare.
Playoffs
Expected wins and playoff / championship probabilities from full-season simulations. Compare teams on odds rather than a single ranking.
Blog
Methodology write-ups, how to read uncertainty, and model notes. Start here when you want the statistical details behind the charts.
Explore
Player and venue skill explorers — quarterbacks, kickers, and stadium home-field advantage. Each topic is a posterior board you can open into a career or venue page.
Contact
Questions or feedback? Reach me on X (@VeilleuxMason) or Bluesky (@mveilleux.com).