GamePlan Science
vs
Week 1
2026-09-13
SoFi Stadium · Sunday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
ARI wins 3,200
of 10,000 simulations
LAC wins 6,500
of 10,000 simulations
3 ties-35-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28+35ARILAC

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
ARI 35%Tie 3%63% LAC
ARI most likely
17
LAC most likely
17

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

ARI-0.066
LAC+0.010
league avg -0.41-0.26-0.110.040.190.35 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

ARI-0.104
LAC+0.084
league avg -0.40-0.24-0.090.070.230.38 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)