GamePlan Science
vs
Week 1
2026-09-13
EverBank Stadium · Sunday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
CLE wins 2,600
of 10,000 simulations
JAX wins 7,100
of 10,000 simulations
3 ties-35-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28+35CLEJAX

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
CLE 31%Tie 3%66% JAX
CLE most likely
10
JAX most likely
17

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

CLE-0.342
JAX+0.076
league avg -0.69-0.47-0.25-0.030.190.41 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

CLE+0.154
JAX+0.063
league avg -0.23-0.100.040.170.310.45 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)