GamePlan Science
vs
Week 4
2026-10-04
MetLife Stadium · Sunday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
ARI wins 3,000
of 10,000 simulations
NYG wins 6,800
of 10,000 simulations
2 ties-35-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28+35ARINYG

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
ARI 37%Tie 3%60% NYG
ARI most likely
17
NYG most likely
17

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

ARI-0.066
NYG+0.032
league avg -0.41-0.25-0.090.070.220.38 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

ARI-0.104
NYG-0.058
league avg -0.40-0.27-0.14-0.020.110.23 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)