GamePlan Science
vs
Week 4
2026-10-05
Caesars Superdome · Monday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
ATL wins 4,800
of 10,000 simulations
NO wins 4,800
of 10,000 simulations
4 ties-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28ATLNO

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
ATL 48%Tie 3%49% NO
ATL most likely
17
NO most likely
17

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

ATL-0.083
NO-0.174
league avg -0.53-0.37-0.22-0.060.100.25 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

ATL-0.004
NO+0.056
league avg -0.30-0.17-0.040.090.210.34 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)