GamePlan Science
vs
Week 4
2026-10-04
Lumen Field · Sunday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
LAC wins 2,900
of 10,000 simulations
SEA wins 6,800
of 10,000 simulations
3 ties-35-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28+35LACSEA

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
LAC 32%Tie 3%65% SEA
LAC most likely
10
SEA most likely
17

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

LAC+0.010
SEA+0.087
league avg -0.33-0.18-0.030.120.260.41 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

LAC+0.084
SEA+0.231
league avg -0.21-0.060.090.240.390.53 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)