GamePlan Science
vs
Week 4
2026-10-04
U.S. Bank Stadium · Sunday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
MIA wins 3,400
of 10,000 simulations
MIN wins 6,200
of 10,000 simulations
4 ties-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28MIAMIN

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
MIA 36%Tie 3%61% MIN
MIA most likely
10
MIN most likely
17

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

MIA-0.082
MIN-0.125
league avg -0.47-0.32-0.18-0.030.110.26 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

MIA-0.063
MIN+0.171
league avg -0.36-0.19-0.030.140.300.47 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)