GamePlan Science
vs
Week 5
2026-10-11
MetLife Stadium · Sunday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
CLE wins 4,800
of 10,000 simulations
NYJ wins 4,800
of 10,000 simulations
4 ties-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28CLENYJ

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
CLE 52%Tie 4%44% NYJ
CLE most likely
17
NYJ most likely
10

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

CLE-0.342
NYJ-0.255
league avg -0.69-0.54-0.38-0.22-0.070.09 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

CLE+0.154
NYJ-0.157
league avg -0.45-0.27-0.090.090.270.45 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)