GamePlan Science
vs
Week 5
2026-10-11
SoFi Stadium · Sunday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
DEN wins 4,800
of 10,000 simulations
LAC wins 4,800
of 10,000 simulations
4 ties-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28DENLAC

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
DEN 46%Tie 3%50% LAC
DEN most likely
17
LAC most likely
17

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

DEN-0.017
LAC+0.010
league avg -0.35-0.21-0.070.070.210.35 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

DEN+0.126
LAC+0.084
league avg -0.21-0.090.040.160.280.41 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)