GamePlan Science
vs
Week 5
2026-10-11
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · Sunday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
PHI wins 4,200
of 10,000 simulations
JAX wins 5,500
of 10,000 simulations
3 ties-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28PHIJAX

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
PHI 42%Tie 3%55% JAX
PHI most likely
10
JAX most likely
17

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

PHI-0.038
JAX+0.076
league avg -0.37-0.22-0.060.100.250.41 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

PHI+0.143
JAX+0.063
league avg -0.23-0.100.040.170.310.44 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)