GamePlan Science
vs
Week 5
2026-10-11
Lumen Field · Sunday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
SF wins 3,000
of 10,000 simulations
SEA wins 6,700
of 10,000 simulations
3 ties-35-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28+35SFSEA

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
SF 33%Tie 3%64% SEA
SF most likely
10
SEA most likely
24

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

SF+0.144
SEA+0.087
league avg -0.24-0.090.050.190.340.48 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

SF-0.040
SEA+0.231
league avg -0.33-0.160.010.190.360.53 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)