GamePlan Science
vs
Week 5
2026-10-08
AT&T Stadium · Thursday

Simulated Outcomes

each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winner
TB wins 4,500
of 10,000 simulations
DAL wins 5,200
of 10,000 simulations
3 ties-35-28-24-21-17-14-10-7-3TIE+3+7+10+14+17+21+24+28+35TBDAL

Win Probability

from the model's predicted score distributions
TB 44%Tie 3%53% DAL
TB most likely
24
DAL most likely
24

Team Strength Comparison

season posteriors for this matchup

Offensive Strength

TB-0.047
DAL+0.196
league avg -0.38-0.20-0.010.170.360.54 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)

Defensive Strength

TB-0.021
DAL-0.211
league avg -0.51-0.35-0.20-0.040.110.26 Team strength (Bayesian estimate)