State Farm Stadium · Sunday
Simulated Outcomes
each dot = 100 of 10,000 simulations · colored by winnerDEN wins 5,500
of 10,000 simulations
ARI wins 4,200
of 10,000 simulations
Win Probability
from the model's predicted score distributionsDEN 56%Tie 3%41% ARI
DEN most likely
17
ARI most likely
17
Team Strength Comparison
season posteriors for this matchupOffensive Strength
DEN-0.017
ARI-0.066
Defensive Strength
DEN+0.126
ARI-0.104