NFL Playoff Predictions
Playoff Outlook
2021 SeasonMonte Carlo season simulations driven by each team's Bayesian strength posterior — win distributions, division titles, and Super Bowl odds with quantified uncertainty.
Projected Super Bowl· model's most likely championship matchup
Cincinnati BengalsAFC
50%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
31%
Playoffs
61%
Los Angeles RamsNFC
50%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
56%
Playoffs
74%
AFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1
Kansas City Chiefs69%
Kansas City Chiefs69%
2Cincinnati Bengals31%50% SB
Cincinnati Bengals31%
3
Buffalo Bills0%
Buffalo Bills0%
4
New England Patriots0%
New England Patriots0%
5
Miami Dolphins0%
Miami Dolphins0%
6
New York Jets0%
New York Jets0%
7
Baltimore Ravens0%
Baltimore Ravens0%
8
Cleveland Browns0%
Cleveland Browns0%
9
Pittsburgh Steelers0%
Pittsburgh Steelers0%
10
Tennessee Titans0%
Tennessee Titans0%
11
Indianapolis Colts0%
Indianapolis Colts0%
12
Jacksonville Jaguars0%
Jacksonville Jaguars0%
13
Houston Texans0%
Houston Texans0%
14
Los Angeles Chargers0%
Los Angeles Chargers0%
15
Denver Broncos0%
Denver Broncos0%
16
Las Vegas Raiders0%
Las Vegas Raiders0%
NFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1Los Angeles Rams56%50% SB
Los Angeles Rams56%
2
San Francisco 49ers44%
San Francisco 49ers44%
3
Dallas Cowboys0%
Dallas Cowboys0%
4
Philadelphia Eagles0%
Philadelphia Eagles0%
5
Washington Commanders0%
Washington Commanders0%
6
New York Giants0%
New York Giants0%
7
Green Bay Packers0%
Green Bay Packers0%
8
Minnesota Vikings0%
Minnesota Vikings0%
9
Chicago Bears0%
Chicago Bears0%
10
Detroit Lions0%
Detroit Lions0%
11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0%
12
New Orleans Saints0%
New Orleans Saints0%
13
Carolina Panthers0%
Carolina Panthers0%
14
Atlanta Falcons0%
Atlanta Falcons0%
15
Arizona Cardinals0%
Arizona Cardinals0%
16
Seattle Seahawks0%
Seattle Seahawks0%
AFC
East
Buffalo Bills12 exp W
Playoffs
93%
Div Winner
68%
New England Patriots10 exp W
Playoffs
73%
Div Winner
26%
Miami Dolphins8 exp W
Playoffs
31%
Div Winner
6%
New York Jets6 exp W
Playoffs
6%
Div Winner
1%
North
Cincinnati Bengals9 exp W
Playoffs
61%
Div Winner
37%
Conf Champ
31%
Super Bowl
50%
Baltimore Ravens9 exp W
Playoffs
59%
Div Winner
36%
Cleveland Browns8 exp W
Playoffs
33%
Div Winner
15%
Pittsburgh Steelers8 exp W
Playoffs
28%
Div Winner
12%
South
Tennessee Titans9 exp W
Playoffs
59%
Div Winner
49%
Indianapolis Colts9 exp W
Playoffs
56%
Div Winner
44%
Jacksonville Jaguars5 exp W
Playoffs
6%
Div Winner
4%
Houston Texans5 exp W
Playoffs
4%
Div Winner
3%
West
Kansas City Chiefs11 exp W
Playoffs
84%
Div Winner
64%
Conf Champ
69%
Los Angeles Chargers9 exp W
Playoffs
52%
Div Winner
20%
Denver Broncos8 exp W
Playoffs
31%
Div Winner
10%
Las Vegas Raiders7 exp W
Playoffs
24%
Div Winner
7%
NFC
East
Dallas Cowboys10 exp W
Playoffs
78%
Div Winner
56%
Philadelphia Eagles9 exp W
Playoffs
64%
Div Winner
37%
Washington Commanders7 exp W
Playoffs
15%
Div Winner
5%
New York Giants6 exp W
Playoffs
8%
Div Winner
2%
North
Green Bay Packers10 exp W
Playoffs
77%
Div Winner
67%
Minnesota Vikings8 exp W
Playoffs
36%
Div Winner
21%
Chicago Bears6 exp W
Playoffs
13%
Div Winner
8%
Detroit Lions6 exp W
Playoffs
9%
Div Winner
5%
South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers11 exp W
Playoffs
88%
Div Winner
75%
New Orleans Saints8 exp W
Playoffs
41%
Div Winner
17%
Carolina Panthers7 exp W
Playoffs
14%
Div Winner
5%
Atlanta Falcons6 exp W
Playoffs
10%
Div Winner
3%
West
San Francisco 49ers10 exp W
Playoffs
77%
Div Winner
37%
Conf Champ
44%
Los Angeles Rams10 exp W
Playoffs
74%
Div Winner
33%
Conf Champ
56%
Super Bowl
50%
Arizona Cardinals9 exp W
Playoffs
51%
Div Winner
18%
Seattle Seahawks9 exp W
Playoffs
46%
Div Winner
12%
How to read this: Each bar shows the fraction of 10,000 simulated seasons in which that outcome occurred. Win distribution shows the probability of ending the regular season with 0–17 wins. Strength posteriors are derived from the Bayesian drive-outcomes model fit to play-by-play data.