NFL Playoff Predictions
Playoff Outlook
2022 SeasonMonte Carlo season simulations driven by each team's Bayesian strength posterior — win distributions, division titles, and Super Bowl odds with quantified uncertainty.
Projected Super Bowl· model's most likely championship matchup
Kansas City ChiefsAFC
47%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
65%
Playoffs
91%
Philadelphia EaglesNFC
53%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
53%
Playoffs
86%
AFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1Kansas City Chiefs65%47% SB
Kansas City Chiefs65%
2
Cincinnati Bengals35%
Cincinnati Bengals35%
3
Buffalo Bills0%
Buffalo Bills0%
4
Miami Dolphins0%
Miami Dolphins0%
5
New England Patriots0%
New England Patriots0%
6
New York Jets0%
New York Jets0%
7
Baltimore Ravens0%
Baltimore Ravens0%
8
Cleveland Browns0%
Cleveland Browns0%
9
Pittsburgh Steelers0%
Pittsburgh Steelers0%
10
Jacksonville Jaguars0%
Jacksonville Jaguars0%
11
Tennessee Titans0%
Tennessee Titans0%
12
Indianapolis Colts0%
Indianapolis Colts0%
13
Houston Texans0%
Houston Texans0%
14
Las Vegas Raiders0%
Las Vegas Raiders0%
15
Los Angeles Chargers0%
Los Angeles Chargers0%
16
Denver Broncos0%
Denver Broncos0%
NFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1Philadelphia Eagles53%53% SB
Philadelphia Eagles53%
2
San Francisco 49ers48%
San Francisco 49ers48%
3
Dallas Cowboys0%
Dallas Cowboys0%
4
New York Giants0%
New York Giants0%
5
Washington Commanders0%
Washington Commanders0%
6
Detroit Lions0%
Detroit Lions0%
7
Green Bay Packers0%
Green Bay Packers0%
8
Minnesota Vikings0%
Minnesota Vikings0%
9
Chicago Bears0%
Chicago Bears0%
10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0%
11
New Orleans Saints0%
New Orleans Saints0%
12
Atlanta Falcons0%
Atlanta Falcons0%
13
Carolina Panthers0%
Carolina Panthers0%
14
Seattle Seahawks0%
Seattle Seahawks0%
15
Los Angeles Rams0%
Los Angeles Rams0%
16
Arizona Cardinals0%
Arizona Cardinals0%
AFC
East
Buffalo Bills11 exp W
Playoffs
87%
Div Winner
65%
Miami Dolphins9 exp W
Playoffs
59%
Div Winner
25%
New England Patriots8 exp W
Playoffs
35%
Div Winner
9%
New York Jets6 exp W
Playoffs
8%
Div Winner
2%
North
Baltimore Ravens9 exp W
Playoffs
60%
Div Winner
34%
Cincinnati Bengals9 exp W
Playoffs
57%
Div Winner
30%
Conf Champ
35%
Cleveland Browns9 exp W
Playoffs
48%
Div Winner
24%
Pittsburgh Steelers7 exp W
Playoffs
28%
Div Winner
12%
South
Jacksonville Jaguars8 exp W
Playoffs
47%
Div Winner
41%
Tennessee Titans7 exp W
Playoffs
29%
Div Winner
25%
Indianapolis Colts7 exp W
Playoffs
28%
Div Winner
24%
Houston Texans5 exp W
Playoffs
12%
Div Winner
10%
West
Kansas City Chiefs11 exp W
Playoffs
91%
Div Winner
70%
Conf Champ
65%
Super Bowl
47%
Las Vegas Raiders9 exp W
Playoffs
45%
Div Winner
13%
Los Angeles Chargers8 exp W
Playoffs
45%
Div Winner
13%
Denver Broncos7 exp W
Playoffs
21%
Div Winner
5%
NFC
East
Dallas Cowboys11 exp W
Playoffs
91%
Div Winner
57%
Philadelphia Eagles11 exp W
Playoffs
86%
Div Winner
39%
Conf Champ
53%
Super Bowl
53%
New York Giants7 exp W
Playoffs
22%
Div Winner
3%
Washington Commanders7 exp W
Playoffs
17%
Div Winner
1%
North
Detroit Lions8 exp W
Playoffs
48%
Div Winner
32%
Green Bay Packers8 exp W
Playoffs
47%
Div Winner
30%
Minnesota Vikings8 exp W
Playoffs
43%
Div Winner
28%
Chicago Bears7 exp W
Playoffs
16%
Div Winner
9%
South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8 exp W
Playoffs
52%
Div Winner
42%
New Orleans Saints8 exp W
Playoffs
40%
Div Winner
29%
Atlanta Falcons7 exp W
Playoffs
25%
Div Winner
16%
Carolina Panthers7 exp W
Playoffs
20%
Div Winner
13%
West
San Francisco 49ers11 exp W
Playoffs
87%
Div Winner
68%
Conf Champ
48%
Seattle Seahawks8 exp W
Playoffs
46%
Div Winner
16%
Los Angeles Rams8 exp W
Playoffs
42%
Div Winner
11%
Arizona Cardinals7 exp W
Playoffs
20%
Div Winner
5%
How to read this: Each bar shows the fraction of 10,000 simulated seasons in which that outcome occurred. Win distribution shows the probability of ending the regular season with 0–17 wins. Strength posteriors are derived from the Bayesian drive-outcomes model fit to play-by-play data.