NFL Playoff Predictions
Playoff Outlook
2025 SeasonMonte Carlo season simulations driven by each team's Bayesian strength posterior — win distributions, division titles, and Super Bowl odds with quantified uncertainty.
Projected Super Bowl· model's most likely championship matchup
New England PatriotsAFC
51%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
47%
Playoffs
79%
Seattle SeahawksNFC
49%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
58%
Playoffs
79%
AFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1
Denver Broncos53%
Denver Broncos53%
2New England Patriots47%51% SB
New England Patriots47%
3
Buffalo Bills0%
Buffalo Bills0%
4
Miami Dolphins0%
Miami Dolphins0%
5
New York Jets0%
New York Jets0%
6
Baltimore Ravens0%
Baltimore Ravens0%
7
Pittsburgh Steelers0%
Pittsburgh Steelers0%
8
Cincinnati Bengals0%
Cincinnati Bengals0%
9
Cleveland Browns0%
Cleveland Browns0%
10
Indianapolis Colts0%
Indianapolis Colts0%
11
Jacksonville Jaguars0%
Jacksonville Jaguars0%
12
Houston Texans0%
Houston Texans0%
13
Tennessee Titans0%
Tennessee Titans0%
14
Los Angeles Chargers0%
Los Angeles Chargers0%
15
Kansas City Chiefs0%
Kansas City Chiefs0%
16
Las Vegas Raiders0%
Las Vegas Raiders0%
NFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1Seattle Seahawks58%49% SB
Seattle Seahawks58%
2
Los Angeles Rams42%
Los Angeles Rams42%
3
Philadelphia Eagles0%
Philadelphia Eagles0%
4
Dallas Cowboys0%
Dallas Cowboys0%
5
Washington Commanders0%
Washington Commanders0%
6
New York Giants0%
New York Giants0%
7
Detroit Lions0%
Detroit Lions0%
8
Green Bay Packers0%
Green Bay Packers0%
9
Chicago Bears0%
Chicago Bears0%
10
Minnesota Vikings0%
Minnesota Vikings0%
11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0%
12
Atlanta Falcons0%
Atlanta Falcons0%
13
New Orleans Saints0%
New Orleans Saints0%
14
Carolina Panthers0%
Carolina Panthers0%
15
San Francisco 49ers0%
San Francisco 49ers0%
16
Arizona Cardinals0%
Arizona Cardinals0%
AFC
East
Buffalo Bills11 exp W
Playoffs
90%
Div Winner
59%
New England Patriots10 exp W
Playoffs
79%
Div Winner
37%
Conf Champ
47%
Super Bowl
51%
Miami Dolphins7 exp W
Playoffs
24%
Div Winner
4%
New York Jets5 exp W
Playoffs
3%
North
Baltimore Ravens10 exp W
Playoffs
70%
Div Winner
54%
Pittsburgh Steelers8 exp W
Playoffs
38%
Div Winner
23%
Cincinnati Bengals8 exp W
Playoffs
29%
Div Winner
18%
Cleveland Browns6 exp W
Playoffs
8%
Div Winner
5%
South
Indianapolis Colts10 exp W
Playoffs
70%
Div Winner
46%
Jacksonville Jaguars9 exp W
Playoffs
57%
Div Winner
31%
Houston Texans8 exp W
Playoffs
45%
Div Winner
22%
Tennessee Titans5 exp W
Playoffs
2%
Div Winner
1%
West
Denver Broncos10 exp W
Playoffs
64%
Div Winner
38%
Conf Champ
53%
Los Angeles Chargers9 exp W
Playoffs
61%
Div Winner
33%
Kansas City Chiefs9 exp W
Playoffs
57%
Div Winner
28%
Las Vegas Raiders5 exp W
Playoffs
4%
Div Winner
1%
NFC
East
Philadelphia Eagles9 exp W
Playoffs
64%
Div Winner
53%
Dallas Cowboys8 exp W
Playoffs
30%
Div Winner
20%
Washington Commanders7 exp W
Playoffs
23%
Div Winner
15%
New York Giants7 exp W
Playoffs
19%
Div Winner
12%
North
Detroit Lions10 exp W
Playoffs
71%
Div Winner
42%
Green Bay Packers10 exp W
Playoffs
62%
Div Winner
31%
Chicago Bears9 exp W
Playoffs
41%
Div Winner
14%
Minnesota Vikings8 exp W
Playoffs
39%
Div Winner
14%
South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers9 exp W
Playoffs
56%
Div Winner
49%
Atlanta Falcons7 exp W
Playoffs
26%
Div Winner
21%
New Orleans Saints7 exp W
Playoffs
26%
Div Winner
22%
Carolina Panthers6 exp W
Playoffs
11%
Div Winner
8%
West
Seattle Seahawks11 exp W
Playoffs
79%
Div Winner
41%
Conf Champ
58%
Super Bowl
49%
Los Angeles Rams10 exp W
Playoffs
78%
Div Winner
37%
Conf Champ
42%
San Francisco 49ers10 exp W
Playoffs
62%
Div Winner
20%
Arizona Cardinals7 exp W
Playoffs
13%
Div Winner
2%
How to read this: Each bar shows the fraction of 10,000 simulated seasons in which that outcome occurred. Win distribution shows the probability of ending the regular season with 0–17 wins. Strength posteriors are derived from the Bayesian drive-outcomes model fit to play-by-play data.