NFL Playoff Predictions
Playoff Outlook
2023 SeasonMonte Carlo season simulations driven by each team's Bayesian strength posterior — win distributions, division titles, and Super Bowl odds with quantified uncertainty.
Projected Super Bowl· model's most likely championship matchup
Kansas City ChiefsAFC
49%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
38%
Playoffs
76%
San Francisco 49ersNFC
51%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
64%
Playoffs
87%
AFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1
Baltimore Ravens62%
Baltimore Ravens62%
2Kansas City Chiefs38%49% SB
Kansas City Chiefs38%
3
Buffalo Bills0%
Buffalo Bills0%
4
Miami Dolphins0%
Miami Dolphins0%
5
New England Patriots0%
New England Patriots0%
6
New York Jets0%
New York Jets0%
7
Cincinnati Bengals0%
Cincinnati Bengals0%
8
Cleveland Browns0%
Cleveland Browns0%
9
Pittsburgh Steelers0%
Pittsburgh Steelers0%
10
Houston Texans0%
Houston Texans0%
11
Indianapolis Colts0%
Indianapolis Colts0%
12
Jacksonville Jaguars0%
Jacksonville Jaguars0%
13
Tennessee Titans0%
Tennessee Titans0%
14
Los Angeles Chargers0%
Los Angeles Chargers0%
15
Denver Broncos0%
Denver Broncos0%
16
Las Vegas Raiders0%
Las Vegas Raiders0%
NFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1San Francisco 49ers64%51% SB
San Francisco 49ers64%
2
Detroit Lions36%
Detroit Lions36%
3
Dallas Cowboys0%
Dallas Cowboys0%
4
Philadelphia Eagles0%
Philadelphia Eagles0%
5
Washington Commanders0%
Washington Commanders0%
6
New York Giants0%
New York Giants0%
7
Green Bay Packers0%
Green Bay Packers0%
8
Minnesota Vikings0%
Minnesota Vikings0%
9
Chicago Bears0%
Chicago Bears0%
10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0%
11
New Orleans Saints0%
New Orleans Saints0%
12
Atlanta Falcons0%
Atlanta Falcons0%
13
Carolina Panthers0%
Carolina Panthers0%
14
Los Angeles Rams0%
Los Angeles Rams0%
15
Seattle Seahawks0%
Seattle Seahawks0%
16
Arizona Cardinals0%
Arizona Cardinals0%
AFC
East
Buffalo Bills12 exp W
Playoffs
92%
Div Winner
63%
Miami Dolphins10 exp W
Playoffs
80%
Div Winner
35%
New England Patriots6 exp W
Playoffs
8%
Div Winner
1%
New York Jets6 exp W
Playoffs
8%
Div Winner
1%
North
Baltimore Ravens11 exp W
Playoffs
87%
Div Winner
67%
Conf Champ
62%
Cincinnati Bengals8 exp W
Playoffs
42%
Div Winner
15%
Cleveland Browns8 exp W
Playoffs
38%
Div Winner
10%
Pittsburgh Steelers8 exp W
Playoffs
31%
Div Winner
9%
South
Houston Texans9 exp W
Playoffs
53%
Div Winner
42%
Indianapolis Colts8 exp W
Playoffs
38%
Div Winner
25%
Jacksonville Jaguars7 exp W
Playoffs
32%
Div Winner
22%
Tennessee Titans7 exp W
Playoffs
19%
Div Winner
12%
West
Kansas City Chiefs10 exp W
Playoffs
76%
Div Winner
59%
Conf Champ
38%
Super Bowl
49%
Los Angeles Chargers8 exp W
Playoffs
39%
Div Winner
16%
Denver Broncos8 exp W
Playoffs
30%
Div Winner
13%
Las Vegas Raiders8 exp W
Playoffs
27%
Div Winner
12%
NFC
East
Dallas Cowboys11 exp W
Playoffs
82%
Div Winner
56%
Philadelphia Eagles10 exp W
Playoffs
75%
Div Winner
40%
Washington Commanders7 exp W
Playoffs
12%
Div Winner
4%
New York Giants5 exp W
Playoffs
4%
Div Winner
1%
North
Detroit Lions10 exp W
Playoffs
78%
Div Winner
50%
Conf Champ
36%
Green Bay Packers9 exp W
Playoffs
55%
Div Winner
29%
Minnesota Vikings8 exp W
Playoffs
45%
Div Winner
17%
Chicago Bears7 exp W
Playoffs
17%
Div Winner
5%
South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers9 exp W
Playoffs
58%
Div Winner
42%
New Orleans Saints9 exp W
Playoffs
56%
Div Winner
38%
Atlanta Falcons7 exp W
Playoffs
28%
Div Winner
18%
Carolina Panthers5 exp W
Playoffs
6%
Div Winner
3%
West
San Francisco 49ers11 exp W
Playoffs
87%
Div Winner
67%
Conf Champ
64%
Super Bowl
51%
Los Angeles Rams8 exp W
Playoffs
40%
Div Winner
17%
Seattle Seahawks8 exp W
Playoffs
36%
Div Winner
11%
Arizona Cardinals7 exp W
Playoffs
21%
Div Winner
6%
How to read this: Each bar shows the fraction of 10,000 simulated seasons in which that outcome occurred. Win distribution shows the probability of ending the regular season with 0–17 wins. Strength posteriors are derived from the Bayesian drive-outcomes model fit to play-by-play data.