NFL Playoff Predictions
Playoff Outlook
2026 SeasonMonte Carlo season simulations driven by each team's Bayesian strength posterior — win distributions, division titles, and Super Bowl odds with quantified uncertainty.
Projected Super Bowl· model's most likely championship matchup
New England PatriotsAFC
8%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
15%
Playoffs
71%
Seattle SeahawksNFC
13%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
22%
Playoffs
79%
AFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1New England Patriots15%8% SB
New England Patriots15%
2
Indianapolis Colts14%7% SB
Indianapolis Colts14%
3
Buffalo Bills13%7% SB
Buffalo Bills13%
4
Jacksonville Jaguars11%5% SB
Jacksonville Jaguars11%
5
Denver Broncos9%4% SB
Denver Broncos9%
6
Houston Texans8%4% SB
Houston Texans8%
7
Baltimore Ravens7%3% SB
Baltimore Ravens7%
8
Los Angeles Chargers7%3% SB
Los Angeles Chargers7%
9
Kansas City Chiefs6%3% SB
Kansas City Chiefs6%
10
Pittsburgh Steelers5%2% SB
Pittsburgh Steelers5%
11
Cincinnati Bengals2%1% SB
Cincinnati Bengals2%
12
Cleveland Browns2%1% SB
Cleveland Browns2%
13
Miami Dolphins1%
Miami Dolphins1%
14
Tennessee Titans0%
Tennessee Titans0%
15
Las Vegas Raiders0%
Las Vegas Raiders0%
16
New York Jets0%
New York Jets0%
NFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1Seattle Seahawks22%13% SB
Seattle Seahawks22%
2
Los Angeles Rams20%12% SB
Los Angeles Rams20%
3
Detroit Lions9%4% SB
Detroit Lions9%
4
Philadelphia Eagles9%4% SB
Philadelphia Eagles9%
5
Green Bay Packers7%3% SB
Green Bay Packers7%
6
San Francisco 49ers7%3% SB
San Francisco 49ers7%
7
Chicago Bears6%3% SB
Chicago Bears6%
8
Minnesota Vikings5%2% SB
Minnesota Vikings5%
9
New York Giants3%2% SB
New York Giants3%
10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3%1% SB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3%
11
Dallas Cowboys3%1% SB
Dallas Cowboys3%
12
Atlanta Falcons3%1% SB
Atlanta Falcons3%
13
New Orleans Saints2%1% SB
New Orleans Saints2%
14
Carolina Panthers1%
Carolina Panthers1%
15
Washington Commanders1%
Washington Commanders1%
16
Arizona Cardinals1%
Arizona Cardinals1%
AFC
East
New England Patriots10 exp W
Playoffs
71%
Div Winner
46%
Conf Champ
15%
Super Bowl
8%
Buffalo Bills10 exp W
Playoffs
68%
Div Winner
43%
Conf Champ
13%
Super Bowl
7%
Miami Dolphins7 exp W
Playoffs
22%
Div Winner
8%
Conf Champ
1%
New York Jets5 exp W
Playoffs
6%
Div Winner
2%
North
Baltimore Ravens9 exp W
Playoffs
56%
Div Winner
36%
Conf Champ
7%
Super Bowl
3%
Pittsburgh Steelers9 exp W
Playoffs
49%
Div Winner
30%
Conf Champ
5%
Super Bowl
2%
Cincinnati Bengals8 exp W
Playoffs
35%
Div Winner
18%
Conf Champ
2%
Super Bowl
1%
Cleveland Browns8 exp W
Playoffs
30%
Div Winner
16%
Conf Champ
2%
Super Bowl
1%
South
Indianapolis Colts10 exp W
Playoffs
70%
Div Winner
41%
Conf Champ
14%
Super Bowl
7%
Jacksonville Jaguars9 exp W
Playoffs
61%
Div Winner
31%
Conf Champ
11%
Super Bowl
5%
Houston Texans9 exp W
Playoffs
55%
Div Winner
26%
Conf Champ
8%
Super Bowl
4%
Tennessee Titans6 exp W
Playoffs
10%
Div Winner
3%
West
Denver Broncos9 exp W
Playoffs
57%
Div Winner
36%
Conf Champ
9%
Super Bowl
4%
Kansas City Chiefs9 exp W
Playoffs
51%
Div Winner
31%
Conf Champ
6%
Super Bowl
3%
Los Angeles Chargers8 exp W
Playoffs
49%
Div Winner
28%
Conf Champ
7%
Super Bowl
3%
Las Vegas Raiders6 exp W
Playoffs
11%
Div Winner
5%
NFC
East
Philadelphia Eagles9 exp W
Playoffs
58%
Div Winner
45%
Conf Champ
9%
Super Bowl
4%
New York Giants8 exp W
Playoffs
38%
Div Winner
25%
Conf Champ
3%
Super Bowl
2%
Dallas Cowboys8 exp W
Playoffs
31%
Div Winner
19%
Conf Champ
3%
Super Bowl
1%
Washington Commanders7 exp W
Playoffs
20%
Div Winner
11%
Conf Champ
1%
North
Detroit Lions9 exp W
Playoffs
59%
Div Winner
32%
Conf Champ
9%
Super Bowl
4%
Green Bay Packers9 exp W
Playoffs
52%
Div Winner
25%
Conf Champ
7%
Super Bowl
3%
Chicago Bears9 exp W
Playoffs
47%
Div Winner
22%
Conf Champ
6%
Super Bowl
3%
Minnesota Vikings9 exp W
Playoffs
46%
Div Winner
21%
Conf Champ
5%
Super Bowl
2%
South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8 exp W
Playoffs
41%
Div Winner
32%
Conf Champ
3%
Super Bowl
1%
New Orleans Saints8 exp W
Playoffs
34%
Div Winner
26%
Conf Champ
2%
Super Bowl
1%
Atlanta Falcons8 exp W
Playoffs
33%
Div Winner
25%
Conf Champ
3%
Super Bowl
1%
Carolina Panthers7 exp W
Playoffs
25%
Div Winner
18%
Conf Champ
1%
West
Seattle Seahawks10 exp W
Playoffs
79%
Div Winner
44%
Conf Champ
22%
Super Bowl
13%
Los Angeles Rams10 exp W
Playoffs
73%
Div Winner
36%
Conf Champ
20%
Super Bowl
12%
San Francisco 49ers9 exp W
Playoffs
50%
Div Winner
16%
Conf Champ
7%
Super Bowl
3%
Arizona Cardinals7 exp W
Playoffs
15%
Div Winner
3%
Conf Champ
1%
How to read this: Each bar shows the fraction of 10,000 simulated seasons in which that outcome occurred. Win distribution shows the probability of ending the regular season with 0–17 wins. Strength posteriors are derived from the Bayesian drive-outcomes model fit to play-by-play data.