NFL Playoff Predictions
Playoff Outlook
2024 SeasonMonte Carlo season simulations driven by each team's Bayesian strength posterior — win distributions, division titles, and Super Bowl odds with quantified uncertainty.
Projected Super Bowl· model's most likely championship matchup
Kansas City ChiefsAFC
37%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
51%
Playoffs
70%
Philadelphia EaglesNFC
63%
Super Bowl win probability
Conf
68%
Playoffs
84%
AFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1Kansas City Chiefs51%37% SB
Kansas City Chiefs51%
2
Buffalo Bills49%
Buffalo Bills49%
3
Miami Dolphins0%
Miami Dolphins0%
4
New England Patriots0%
New England Patriots0%
5
New York Jets0%
New York Jets0%
6
Baltimore Ravens0%
Baltimore Ravens0%
7
Cincinnati Bengals0%
Cincinnati Bengals0%
8
Pittsburgh Steelers0%
Pittsburgh Steelers0%
9
Cleveland Browns0%
Cleveland Browns0%
10
Indianapolis Colts0%
Indianapolis Colts0%
11
Houston Texans0%
Houston Texans0%
12
Jacksonville Jaguars0%
Jacksonville Jaguars0%
13
Tennessee Titans0%
Tennessee Titans0%
14
Los Angeles Chargers0%
Los Angeles Chargers0%
15
Denver Broncos0%
Denver Broncos0%
16
Las Vegas Raiders0%
Las Vegas Raiders0%
NFC Conferenceranked by conf championship odds
1Philadelphia Eagles68%63% SB
Philadelphia Eagles68%
2
Washington Commanders32%
Washington Commanders32%
3
Dallas Cowboys0%
Dallas Cowboys0%
4
New York Giants0%
New York Giants0%
5
Detroit Lions0%
Detroit Lions0%
6
Green Bay Packers0%
Green Bay Packers0%
7
Minnesota Vikings0%
Minnesota Vikings0%
8
Chicago Bears0%
Chicago Bears0%
9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0%
10
Atlanta Falcons0%
Atlanta Falcons0%
11
New Orleans Saints0%
New Orleans Saints0%
12
Carolina Panthers0%
Carolina Panthers0%
13
San Francisco 49ers0%
San Francisco 49ers0%
14
Seattle Seahawks0%
Seattle Seahawks0%
15
Los Angeles Rams0%
Los Angeles Rams0%
16
Arizona Cardinals0%
Arizona Cardinals0%
AFC
East
Buffalo Bills11 exp W
Playoffs
92%
Div Winner
77%
Conf Champ
49%
Miami Dolphins8 exp W
Playoffs
46%
Div Winner
18%
New England Patriots7 exp W
Playoffs
15%
Div Winner
3%
New York Jets6 exp W
Playoffs
12%
Div Winner
2%
North
Baltimore Ravens12 exp W
Playoffs
94%
Div Winner
76%
Cincinnati Bengals9 exp W
Playoffs
56%
Div Winner
15%
Pittsburgh Steelers8 exp W
Playoffs
38%
Div Winner
8%
Cleveland Browns6 exp W
Playoffs
9%
Div Winner
1%
South
Indianapolis Colts8 exp W
Playoffs
53%
Div Winner
42%
Houston Texans8 exp W
Playoffs
45%
Div Winner
33%
Jacksonville Jaguars8 exp W
Playoffs
36%
Div Winner
23%
Tennessee Titans5 exp W
Playoffs
5%
Div Winner
3%
West
Kansas City Chiefs10 exp W
Playoffs
70%
Div Winner
39%
Conf Champ
51%
Super Bowl
37%
Los Angeles Chargers10 exp W
Playoffs
68%
Div Winner
36%
Denver Broncos9 exp W
Playoffs
55%
Div Winner
23%
Las Vegas Raiders6 exp W
Playoffs
9%
Div Winner
2%
NFC
East
Philadelphia Eagles11 exp W
Playoffs
84%
Div Winner
67%
Conf Champ
68%
Super Bowl
63%
Washington Commanders9 exp W
Playoffs
53%
Div Winner
23%
Conf Champ
32%
Dallas Cowboys7 exp W
Playoffs
20%
Div Winner
8%
New York Giants5 exp W
Playoffs
3%
Div Winner
1%
North
Detroit Lions11 exp W
Playoffs
87%
Div Winner
57%
Green Bay Packers10 exp W
Playoffs
64%
Div Winner
22%
Minnesota Vikings9 exp W
Playoffs
56%
Div Winner
18%
Chicago Bears7 exp W
Playoffs
15%
Div Winner
3%
South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers10 exp W
Playoffs
78%
Div Winner
67%
Atlanta Falcons8 exp W
Playoffs
29%
Div Winner
17%
New Orleans Saints7 exp W
Playoffs
24%
Div Winner
13%
Carolina Panthers6 exp W
Playoffs
6%
Div Winner
3%
West
San Francisco 49ers9 exp W
Playoffs
57%
Div Winner
32%
Seattle Seahawks9 exp W
Playoffs
51%
Div Winner
29%
Los Angeles Rams9 exp W
Playoffs
50%
Div Winner
28%
Arizona Cardinals8 exp W
Playoffs
25%
Div Winner
11%
How to read this: Each bar shows the fraction of 10,000 simulated seasons in which that outcome occurred. Win distribution shows the probability of ending the regular season with 0–17 wins. Strength posteriors are derived from the Bayesian drive-outcomes model fit to play-by-play data.